The combination of extreme market volatility and uncertainty quickly leads to a mismatch in buyer and seller expectations. Sellers, meanwhile, are reluctant to part with assets given the steep drop in equity values. In the wake of the sudden and unpredictable demand shock, general partners (GPs) have shifted to triage mode, looking to diagnose challenges and stabilize their portfolios. Investmentsĭealmaking fell off sharply when the global financial crisis hit in 2008, and this crisis should also trigger a substantial contraction (see Figure 1). But history and current conditions suggest that funds won’t sit still for long. There’s little doubt that the PE industry will quickly retreat from a remarkable decade of growth and superior performance. With that in mind, we broke down how the 2008–09 global financial crisis affected industry activity and then looked at what’s different this time around that might lead to different outcomes for dealmaking, exits, fund-raising and returns. Yet a close look at the impact of previous economic shocks can provide some clues as to how PE funds and their limited partners (LPs) will behave in a period of rapid contraction. For more detail on the business implications of coronavirus from Bain’s Macro Trends Group, log on to the Macro Surveillance Platform.
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